Capital Power (CPX) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record annual generation of 38 TWh in 2024, expanding to 10 GW capacity, driven by U.S. acquisitions, Genesee Repowering, and major facility turnarounds.

• Completed Genesee Repowering Project, transitioning to 100% natural gas, increasing capacity by 512 MW, and reducing emissions by 3.4 million tons annually.

• Sold 49% interests in two wind facilities for CAD 333 million pre-tax, optimizing the portfolio and exceeding targeted returns.

• Enhanced U.S. presence through acquisitions and integration, with U.S. adjusted EBITDA rising significantly and portfolio share increasing to 57% in 2024.

• Advanced data center opportunities in Alberta and the U.S., and secured $13 million for small modular reactor feasibility.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $330 million, up year-over-year; full-year adjusted EBITDA was $1,333 million, with strong U.S. contributions offsetting Alberta weakness.

• Q4 2024 AFFO was $182 million, up $20 million year-over-year; full-year AFFO was $817 million, down $2 million year-over-year.

• Full-year net cash flows from operating activities were $1,144 million, up $322 million year-over-year.

• Revenues for 2024 were $3,776 million, down from $4,282 million in 2023; basic EPS was $5.16, compared to $6.07 in 2023.

• Electricity generation increased to 37,821 GWh in 2024 from 32,487 GWh in 2023.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance: $1,340–1,440 million; AFFO target: $850–950 million; sustaining CapEx: $195–225 million.

• 2025 capital spend, including contracted projects and maintenance, is fully funded along with the dividend.

• Base cash flows are highly hedged or under long-term contracts, supporting confidence in guidance despite lower spot prices.

• Strategic priorities for 2025 include M&A, contract optimization, facility expansions, and data center opportunities.