Capital Power (CPX) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered 9.6 TWh of reliable power in Q1 2025, advancing 350 MW of flexible generation in Ontario and 300 MW of new renewables in Alberta and North Carolina.

• Announced the largest acquisition in company history, entering the PJM market and adding over 2 GW of incremental capacity, diversifying the portfolio and increasing U.S. capacity to 57% pro forma.

• Maintained operational excellence, completing 43% of scheduled outage days for the year and progressing five Ontario growth projects.

• Advanced development projects, including data centers in Canada and the U.S., and explored small modular reactors in Alberta.

• Business remains resilient with highly contracted cash flows and strong counterparties, largely insulated from tariffs and macro impacts.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was CAD 367 million, up CAD 88 million year-over-year, driven by lower emission costs and record dispatch at Goreway.

• AFFO for the quarter was CAD 218 million, up CAD 76 million from Q1 2024, primarily due to higher adjusted EBITDA and lower income tax expense.

• Net cash flows from operating activities were $210M, down $124M year-over-year, mainly due to working capital changes and higher interest paid.

• All four business segments contributed to adjusted EBITDA growth, with U.S. Flexible Generation up 42% and Canada Flexible Generation up 16% year-over-year.

• Canadian renewables adjusted EBITDA declined to CAD 33 million from CAD 44 million due to a 49% sell-down of wind assets.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance reaffirmed: adjusted EBITDA $1,340–1,440M, AFFO $850–950M, sustaining capex $195–225M.

• Revised guidance to be provided after PJM acquisition closes; integration of new U.S. assets is a priority.

• Long-term fundamentals for natural gas-fired power generation remain strong, with demand growth expected to be resilient.

• Data center opportunities in Alberta and the U.S. remain robust, with ongoing commercial discussions and regulatory engagement.

• Dividend growth guidance of 6% through 2025, then 2–4% annually thereafter to support growth funding.