IRPC (IRPC) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 1Q26 saw a strong recovery with net sales reaching 67,779 MB, up 22% QoQ and 9% YoY, driven by higher crude oil prices and increased average selling prices.

• EBITDA surged to 14,750 MB from 1,356 MB in 4Q25, reflecting improved margins and significant inventory gains.

• Net income rebounded to 7,889 MB, reversing prior losses, supported by a large net inventory gain.

• Strategic asset monetization and operational excellence initiatives were advanced to enhance financial flexibility and long-term growth.

• Earnings per share reached Baht 0.39, up from negative in prior periods.

Financial highlights

• Market GIM improved 14% QoQ to $13.21/bbl, while accounting GIM jumped to $29.79/bbl (QoQ >100%), mainly due to stronger Diesel spreads and inventory gains.

• Net inventory gain was Baht 9,915 million, compared to a loss in 4Q25.

• Net income swung from a loss of (574) MB in 4Q25 to a profit of 7,889 MB in 1Q26, mainly due to a 16.58 $/bbl net inventory gain.

• 1,981 MB potential loss on unrealized oil hedging due to rising crude prices.

• 117 MB investment gain from share divestment in WHAIER.

Outlook and guidance

• Petroleum product spreads expected to remain volatile, with Dubai crude forecasted at $98–105/bbl in 2Q26–3Q26 due to Middle East tensions and supply constraints.

• Petrochemical spreads to face pressure from new capacity and volatile feedstock prices, but demand recovery is anticipated in 2Q26, led by food and beverage packaging.

• OPEC+ production increases and potential normalization of Strait of Hormuz could ease supply pressures.

• Global oil demand projected to contract in 2026 due to supply disruptions and weak product demand, with a rebound expected in 2027.