IRPC (IRPC) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 1Q25 saw a significant decline in profitability, with net income at -1,206 MB, down 7% QoQ and over 100% YoY, mainly due to slumped petroleum product spreads, lower gross refining margins, and investment losses.

• EBITDA dropped 50% QoQ and 66% YoY to 1,596 MB, reflecting weaker market conditions and lower sales volumes in both petroleum and petrochemical segments.

• Market GIM fell 29% QoQ and 33% YoY to $6.34/bbl, driven by declines in almost all petroleum and petrochemical spreads.

• Net sales for 1Q25 were 62,224 MB, down 1% QoQ and 17% YoY, mainly due to lower sales volume and average selling prices.

• Key factors included volatile crude prices, lower product spreads, and losses from investments.

Financial highlights

• Net sales: 62,224 MB (down 1% QoQ, down 17% YoY).

• EBITDA: 1,596 MB, down 50% QoQ and 66% YoY.

• Net income: -1,206 MB, compared to -1,125 MB in 4Q24 and 1,545 MB in 1Q24.

• Accounting GIM: $7.37/bbl, down 26% QoQ and 45% YoY.

• EPS: Baht -0.06, unchanged from 4Q24, down from Baht 0.08 in 1Q24.

Outlook and guidance

• 2Q25 and 3Q25 petroleum product spreads are expected to remain under pressure due to seasonal demand, U.S. tariffs, and China’s export quotas.

• OPEC+ voluntary cuts and Red Sea tensions could affect crude supply.

• Petrochemical demand is expected to remain flat or weaken due to global economic concerns and trade tensions.

• Pipe and construction-related demand may offer some support in 2Q25 and 3Q25.