ERG (ERG) investor relations material

Executive summary

• Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 167 million, up 16% year-over-year, driven by new capacity and improved wind conditions in Europe and the UK, though still below historical averages.

• Adjusted net profit was EUR 61 million, up 24% year-over-year, reflecting better operating results, partially offset by higher depreciation, financial charges, and taxes.

• Total energy production grew to 2,237 GWh, up 15% year-over-year, with significant contributions from new wind assets.

• Strong performance in the UK with EBITDA contribution of EUR 25 million, tripling last year’s result, mainly due to new acquisitions and organic growth.

• U.S. operations underperformed due to exceptional weather events and grid congestion, negatively impacting EBITDA by about EUR 6 million.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA: EUR 167 million in Q1 2026 vs EUR 143 million in Q1 2025 (+16%).

• Adjusted net profit: EUR 61 million in Q1 2026 vs EUR 49 million in Q1 2025 (+24%).

• Q1 investments totaled EUR 148 million, mainly for UK acquisitions and ongoing projects in France, Germany, and Italy.

• Net financial position at end of March was EUR 1,812 million, down from EUR 1,882 million at year-end 2025.

• Group generation reached 2.2 TWh, up 15% year-over-year, driven by higher windiness and new capacity.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 EBITDA guidance confirmed at EUR 520–590 million, with upside possible from higher energy prices, though merchant exposure is limited to 1 TWh.

• CapEx for 2026 expected at EUR 330–380 million, including UK portfolio acquisition.

• Year-end 2026 net financial position forecasted at EUR 1,950–2,050 million, factoring in CapEx and dividend payments.

• Sensitivity: EUR 10/MWh price increase or 100 GWh higher production each add ~EUR 10 million to EBITDA.

• Wind EBITDA in Italy expected to grow slightly, offset by lower prices and incentives; Solar EBITDA in Italy to decline slightly.