Yara International (YAR) Pre-Close Call Presentation summary

Pre-quarter disclosure and guidance

• Pre-quarter information package ensures simultaneous access to key data for all stakeholders.

• No total financial results guidance; only discrete activity area targets and sensitivities are shared.

• Outside-in model estimates EBITDA based on market prices and published sensitivities, excluding quarter-specific adjustments.

• Qualitative comments highlight key considerations based on previously disclosed information.

• Actual results may differ from model estimates due to internal and external factors.

Market prices, sensitivities, and cost guidance

• Ammonia and urea prices increased in 3Q 2026, with ammonia FOB Arab Gulf averaging $307/t and urea Europe $529/t.

• European gas prices rose to $16.3/MMBtu, increasing natural gas costs by $165M.

• Currency movements updated, with USD/EUR at 1.15 and USD/NOK at 0.11.

• Gas cost guidance for 3Q 2026 is based on forward curves and is volume neutral.

• Finished fertilizer production remained stable despite reduced ammonia output.

Operational and market developments

• Planned maintenance in Pilbara led to a 60kt ammonia loss, with a ~$20M negative impact.

• Ammonia production in Europe became unprofitable due to rising gas prices, but upgrading to urea and nitrates stayed positive.

• Nitrate and NPK premiums are under pressure from high commodity prices and soft farmer affordability.

• Urea prices rose despite increased Chinese exports and lower Indian demand, driven by Middle East disruptions and higher crop prices.

• EU urea imports increased 16% over the five-year average, while Brazil's nitrogen imports lagged.