US Foods (USFD) Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Conference summary

Market environment and growth outlook

• Revenue is projected to grow 4%-6% in 2026, with 2.5%-4.5% case growth and 9%-13% EBITDA growth, leading to 18%-24% EPS growth.

• Independent, healthcare, and hospitality segments show healthy growth, with independents outperforming chains due to loyal customer bases and tailored value propositions.

• Industry remains fragmented, with the top three players holding less than 40% market share, supporting ongoing consolidation and organic growth opportunities.

• Most independent growth is driven by net new accounts, with case growth accelerating for five consecutive quarters.

• Restaurant closures and openings have stabilized, and serving a diverse customer base provides resilience.

Sales strategy and compensation changes

• Transitioned local sellers from a 50/50 fixed-variable pay structure to 100% variable, with a phased approach to support retention and performance.

• Early results show improved seller understanding, motivation, and autonomy, with some already earning full commission.

• Retention rates remain stable, and increased hiring pre-transition provided insurance against turnover.

• Expected positive impact on case growth and penetration within one to two quarters.

Technology, AI, and digital initiatives

• AI and digital tools are enhancing sales growth, cross-sell, and up-sell opportunities, with higher conversion rates and improved customer recommendations.

• AI-driven inventory forecasting improved accuracy by over 300 basis points, contributing to significant working capital improvements.

• Labor planning and routing are increasingly automated, freeing up staff for higher-value tasks.

• End-to-end process transformation using AI is underway, aiming for both productivity and revenue growth.