Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) H2 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY 2026 EBITS of $492.3m exceeded guidance, led by Penfolds, despite a statutory NPAT loss of $1,078.7m due to $1,308.7m post-tax material items, mainly US asset impairments.

• The ASCENT transformation program is on track, targeting $100m annual cost savings by FY29, with $40m expected in FY27.

• Strong global depletions growth for Penfolds, especially in China (+34.7%), Asia ex-China (+18.1%), and Australia (+5.7%).

• Significant progress in reducing parallel imports in China and rebalancing customer inventory in China and the US.

• Strategic review and divestment processes underway in the US to improve returns.

Financial highlights

• Net sales revenue (NSR) was $2,561.0m, down 12.8% year-over-year, with declines across all divisions.

• EBITS margin decreased to 19.2% (down 7.0ppts), and ROCE declined to 7.9% (down 4.0ppts).

• Statutory NPAT loss of $1,078.7m, impacted by $1,308.7m in US asset impairments and transformation costs.

• NPAT before material items was $275.3m and EPS was 34.1cps, both down over 41%.

• Cash conversion was 81.4%.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2027 EBITS expected to be at least equivalent to FY 2026, with growth weighted to the second half as inventory rebalancing and shipment phasing progress.

• Greater China FY 2027 EBITS guidance: $280–310m, driven by Penfolds and inventory rebalancing.

• Americas FY 2027 EBITS expected at ~$50m, reflecting inventory reduction and nil-margin sell-through.

• ANZ and Europe FY 2027 EBITS: $100–120m, supported by Penfolds growth and ASCENT savings.

• Revenue growth expected from FY 2028 as inventory rebalancing completes, with a long-term EBITS margin target of 25%+.