Thai Oil (TOP) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1'26 saw a surge in net profit and sales revenue, primarily from non-recurring stock gains and higher crude prices amid Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

• EBITDA rose sharply to 31,641 MB, up 25,660 MB QoQ, with net profit at 19,481 MB, up 17,023 MB from Q4'25.

• Inventory gains were non-recurring, resulting from timing differences in crude procurement and price spikes.

• Refinery utilization remained high at 113%, with strong domestic sales and optimized production to capture local and Indochina demand.

• Crude sourcing was diversified away from the Middle East to enhance energy security, though this increased costs.

Financial highlights

• Q1'26 net profit reached 19,481 MB, up sharply from 2,458 MB in Q4'25, driven by a 16,746 MB stock gain and a 2,436 MB gain from bond buybacks.

• EBITDA rose to 31,641 MB, with EBITDA excluding stock gain and NRV at 14,850 MB.

• Sales revenue increased to 114,809 MB, up 5% QoQ and 8% YoY.

• Accounting GRM soared to $38.0/bbl, with market GRM at $12.7/bbl, reflecting high stock gains.

• Net profit margin reached 16% in Q1'26.

Outlook and guidance

• Refining margins are expected to soften in Q2'26 and 2H'26 as tensions ease, with high pre-secured crude premiums and normalization of product supply.

• Q2'26 faces pressure from higher refinery costs and government-mandated diesel price cuts, potentially leading to inventory losses and reduced profitability.

• Global oil demand growth for 2026 has been revised down, with ongoing geopolitical risks and economic slowdown weighing on margins.

• Aromatics and LAB prices expected to rise in Q2'26, but spreads may narrow due to softer demand.

• Demand for refined products may weaken, and margins are projected to decline in 2H'26.