Rumo (RAIL3) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record transported volume of 79.8 billion RTK in 2024, up 3% year-over-year, with significant market share gains in Mato Grosso (+5 p.p.), Goiás (+7 p.p.), and key ports, despite adverse weather and crop challenges.

• Adjusted EBITDA reached R$7.7 billion, up 37%, and adjusted net income more than doubled to R$2.1 billion, driven by higher tariffs, efficiency gains, and expansion in industrial and grain transport.

• Maintained leadership in rail-based agribusiness transportation, with notable ESG achievements including a 3.33% reduction in specific carbon emissions and continued inclusion in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index.

• Major progress in the Mato Grosso railway expansion, with over half of infrastructure works completed and R$1.7 billion invested in 2024.

• Net revenue rose 27% to R$13,936 million, but a R$3.1 billion impairment at Malha Sul resulted in a net loss of R$948 million.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 reached R$1.7 billion, up 38% year-over-year; full-year adjusted EBITDA was R$7.7 billion, with adjusted net income at R$2.1 billion.

• Net revenue grew 27% to R$13,936 million, driven by higher volumes and a 24% increase in average tariff.

• Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 55% for the year, up 3 p.p.; adjusted net margin at 15% (up 8 p.p. year-over-year).

• Financial leverage improved to 1.4x net debt/Adjusted EBITDA, down from 1.8x in 2023.

• Net debt at quarter-end was R$11 billion; liquidity position strong with R$8 billion in cash.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: transported volume of 82–86 billion RTK, adjusted EBITDA of R$8.1–8.7 billion, and capex of R$5.8–6.5 billion.

• Management expects continued growth, driven by new segments such as hardwood pulp, mining commodities, and fuel, but notes macroeconomic and interest rate headwinds.

• CapEx to remain elevated, focusing on Mato Grosso railway, Malha Paulista enhancements, and Santos port improvements.

• EBITDA guidance reflects higher transported volumes and margin stabilization after three years of strong price hikes.

• Assumptions exclude non-recurring events, M&A, divestments, or new concessions.