Public Power Corporation (PPC) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved robust nine-month 2025 results: adjusted EBITDA of €1.7bn (+24% YoY), net income after minorities €406m (+68% YoY), and revenue up 10% to €7.3bn, driven by renewables, flexible generation, and acquisitions.

• Strategic focus on renewables, flexible generation, digitalization, and AI integration across operations.

• Vertically integrated model provides a natural hedge against market volatility, supporting resilient performance.

• Regional expansion in Southeast Europe, with strong positions in Greece and Romania, and growing presence in Italy, Bulgaria, and Croatia.

• ESG rating upgraded to "A" by MSCI, reflecting improvements in renewables, water and waste management, and governance.

Financial highlights

• 2025 adjusted EBITDA expected at €2bn; net income after minorities €400m+; DPS to rise to €0.60.

• CapEx for 2025 projected at €3bn, mainly for renewables, flexible generation, and distribution; €1.9bn invested in 9M 2025, 88% in green assets.

• Net debt at €6.7bn (Sep 2025), net debt/EBITDA at 3.1x, below 3.5x ceiling.

• Free cash flow at -€1bn due to high investments and seasonal working capital effects.

• 2028 targets: EBITDA €2.9bn, net income €900m, EPS €2.5, DPS €1.2.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2025 targets reaffirmed: adjusted EBITDA €2bn, net income after minorities above €0.4bn, DPS €0.60.

• EBITDA to grow at 18% CAGR (2023-2028), driven by renewables and flexible generation.

• Net income to double by 2028; dividend per share to increase nearly 5x from 2023.

• €10bn CapEx planned for 2026-2028, with €5bn discretionary and no equity increase planned; growth to be self-funded via operating cash flows and debt.

• Lignite phase-out targeted for 2026, with continued focus on renewables and network modernization.