Origin Energy (ORG) H2 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Statutory profit rose to AUD 1.574 billion for FY2026, up from AUD 1.481 billion in FY25, with underlying profit at AUD 1.159 billion and underlying EBITDA at AUD 3.22 billion, reflecting strong Energy Markets and Octopus contributions despite lower Integrated Gas earnings.

• Adjusted free cash flow surged to AUD 2.074 billion, up AUD 867 million year-over-year, driven by Energy Markets and APLNG.

• Customer accounts grew by 243,000 in Retail and 2.2 million in Octopus Energy, with significant progress in battery storage (1.3 GW/4.1 GWh operational) and digital platforms.

• Achieved AUD 100–150 million cost-out target, completed legal separation of Octopus and Kraken, and Kraken raised AUD 1 billion in equity at an AUD 8.65 billion valuation.

• Data security incident affected 900,000 customers, with ongoing support, system security enhancements, and a criminal investigation.

Financial highlights

• Energy Markets EBITDA was AUD 1.701 billion, near the upper end of guidance; Integrated Gas EBITDA was AUD 1.62 billion, in line with expectations.

• Octopus and Kraken combined EBITDA loss of AUD 8 million, with U.K. Retail contributing AUD 134 million.

• Adjusted free cash flow exceeded AUD 2 billion, up over AUD 700 million year-over-year.

• Net debt to EBITDA improved to 1.6x, below the 2x–3x target range.

• Final dividend of AUD 0.60 per share, fully franked, stable from FY25.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2027 Energy Markets EBITDA guidance: AUD 1.55–1.85 billion; CapEx expected to reduce to AUD 450–650 million, focused on battery projects.

• APLNG production guidance: 625–670 PJ; CapEx and OpEx: AUD 3–3.3 billion.

• Kraken revenue expected to grow over 20% in FY2027; contracted accounts target 100 million; U.K. Retail EBITDA per customer guidance: GBP 25–50.

• Expect continued strong cash flows from APLNG in FY2027, with some offset from oil hedges.