NFI Group (NFI) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2025 delivered significant improvements in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and liquidity, with a backlog of $13.2 billion and a 108.5% book-to-bill ratio, despite a $229.9 million battery recall provision impacting reported results.

• Liquidity rose to $386 million, up 169% year-over-year, and backlog units increased 7% to 15,606, reflecting robust demand and pricing power.

• Supply chain health improved, aided by a joint venture with GILLIG to stabilize seat supply, though some disruptions persist.

• Net loss was $140.9 million, primarily due to the battery recall, while adjusted net earnings reached $12.1 million.

• Deliveries reached 1,114 equivalent units, with 27.6% being zero-emission battery and fuel cell buses.

Financial highlights

• Revenue for Q3 2025 was $879.9 million, up 23.7% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 52.1% to $80.9 million and a margin of 9.2%.

• Free cash flow improved to $39.7 million, compared to negative $23.2 million in Q3 2024.

• Manufacturing segment gross margin, excluding the battery recall, was 10.2%, with gross profit per unit up 58% year-over-year.

• Manufacturing EBITDA increased by $36.1 million year-over-year, driven by higher deliveries and improved pricing.

• Leverage ratio improved to 4.28x, down from 15.71x in Q1 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 revenue guidance narrowed to $3.5–$3.7 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected between $320–$340 million and record Q4 performance anticipated.

• ZEBS expected to comprise ~35% of manufacturing sales in 2025.

• Cash capital expenditures for 2025 expected at $26–$50 million, lower than original guidance.

• Majority of 2026 public market production slots are filled, with strong visibility from firm orders and options.

• Management expects continued improvements in revenue, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and ROIC into 2026.