MP Materials (MP) JP Morgan Energy, Power and Renewables Conference summary

Business transformation and strategic initiatives

• Operations expanded from 8 to 730 employees since 2017, with a three-stage plan: concentrate production, refining, and magnetics.

• Consistent production of over 40,000 tons at Mountain Pass, with refining ramping up and a new magnetics facility in Fort Worth expected to be EBITDA positive this year.

• Full supply chain restoration in the U.S. is targeted, with magnet production at scale as the final step.

• Upstream 60K initiative aims to increase output by 50% over the next four years, with incremental gains expected annually and most output growth back-weighted.

• Magnetics facility in Fort Worth is built, with customer advances and no debt, and is expected to contribute positively to financials.

Market trends and demand outlook

• Rare earths market has faced a significant bear market in the past 6-9 months, with demand diversified across EVs, hybrids, wind, HVAC, and industrial uses.

• Hybrids are experiencing strong growth, offsetting some EV demand weakness, and both use significant rare earth content.

• Robotics, especially humanoid robotics, are expected to drive a step-change in demand for NdPr, with China aiming for mass production by 2025.

• The entire current NdPr market could only supply a fraction of projected robotics demand, indicating potential for a future bull run.

• AI-driven robotics is seen as a key ROI use case for AI investments, with supply chain needs likely to emerge within 3-5 years.

Supply dynamics and geopolitical context

• Over 80% of rare earth supply is controlled by China, with only four major global players.

• Chinese supply quotas are flat this year, and current prices are believed to be loss-making for Chinese producers.

• China is unlikely to subsidize Western competitors as its own OEMs expand globally, and supply increases will likely align with domestic and allied growth.

• U.S. government support is bipartisan, with both administrations providing funding and incentives for domestic rare earth and magnetics production.

• National security and technological leadership in robotics are seen as critical, with urgency to develop domestic supply chains.