Mobileye Global (MBLY) Evercore ISI ADAS, AV and AI Summit summary

Strategic objectives and business outlook

• Focus remains on maintaining core ADAS profitability, deepening customer relationships, and executing EyeQ6-based programs, with major launches targeted for 2026–2027.

• Phase two (2027–2030) aims to scale advanced products, leveraging modular architecture to serve multiple automakers and segments.

• Portfolio segmentation is expected, with SuperVision, Surround ADAS, and Chauffeur systems each targeting different vehicle classes and price points.

• Outside China, nearly all RFQs have been won, locking in business with top customers through 2032–2033.

• Regulatory changes, especially new NCAP standards in Europe by 2028, are driving demand for more sensors and sophisticated software.

Market dynamics and regional challenges

• The auto industry is bifurcating into two markets: China and the rest of the world, with China seeing aggressive local competition and price pressure.

• Domestic China OEM exposure has dropped to about 4% of revenue, with most remaining business tied to export-oriented programs.

• Strategy in China focuses on supporting OEMs with global ambitions rather than competing on price.

• Export from Chinese automakers to developed markets is slower than expected, while local market share gains have accelerated.

• No near-term recovery in China is anticipated; focus is on leveraging regulatory requirements for export opportunities.

Financial framework and growth drivers

• Short-term priorities are to meet market expectations and secure new design wins for advanced products.

• SuperVision RFQs in process could yield 250,000–300,000 units per year per customer, with incremental EPS of $0.18–$0.19 per program at scale.

• Surround ADAS RFQs target about 1 million units per year per customer, with $0.08–$0.09 incremental EPS per customer.

• Market segmentation is emerging, with premium automakers allocating higher shares to advanced systems.

• Delays in RFQ decisions have occurred due to EV/ICE replanning and China strategy, but recent progress is noted and positive news is possible by year-end.