Methanex (MX) Q2 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q2 2026 delivered record North American production and strong financial results, with average realized price at $529/ton and produced sales of 2.2 million tons, generating adjusted EBITDA of $577 million and adjusted net income of $300 million, including a $12 million restructuring accrual and $115 million non-cash asset impairment for Trinidad and Tobago operations.

• Net income attributable to shareholders was $198 million, a significant turnaround from a $14 million loss in Q1 2026.

• Strong cash flows enabled repayment of the remaining $290 million on Term Loan A, ending with over $380 million in cash and access to a $400 million undrawn credit facility.

• Middle East conflict caused significant methanol supply disruptions, leading to volatile and elevated global pricing.

Financial highlights

• Revenue for Q2 2026 was $1,395 million, up from $974 million in Q1 2026, with adjusted EBITDA rising sequentially, driven by higher realized prices and strong North American production.

• Q2 included a $12 million restructuring accrual and a $115 million non-cash asset impairment related to Trinidad.

• Cash flows from operating activities totaled $439 million; adjusted free cash flow was $298 million.

• Shipping and logistics costs increased, reducing EBITDA by $18 million in Q2, with ongoing headwinds of $30–$40 million per quarter due to higher fuel and suboptimal fleet utilization.

• Quarterly dividend of $0.185 per share paid, totaling $14 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Expected 2026 equity production remains at ~9 million tons of methanol and 0.3 million tons of ammonia, with quarterly variation possible due to turnarounds and gas availability.

• Q3 average realized price guidance is $460–$485/ton, with earnings expected to remain strong but lower than Q2 due to pricing.

• Priorities for 2026: safe, reliable operations, OCI integration, and achieving $30 million in synergies by year-end.

• Majority of free cash flow to be directed toward cash build and debt reduction, targeting 2–2.5x adjusted debt/EBITDA at mid-cycle pricing.