MaxLinear (MXL) Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference summary

Company overview and market positioning

• Focus has shifted to data center and infrastructure, now over 50% of revenues, with strong traction in optical and storage accelerators.

• Product mix is evolving, with 800G products now dominant and 1.6T ramping up for mid-2027 production.

• Technical differentiation includes lower power consumption and a broadened portfolio, including retimers and TIAs.

• Customer base is broad, with no single dominant client, and increased focus on module customers.

• Market share aspirations are 20-25% within a few years, supported by ongoing customer qualifications and supply chain innovation.

Product and technology roadmap

• New Rushmore product expected to launch mid-next year, with full production the following year.

• Transition to Samsung for 1.6T products provides supply chain diversity and attracts customer interest.

• ASPs rise significantly with each technology transition (400G to 800G to 1.6T and beyond), driven by increased content and performance.

• CPO and NPO architectures will further increase content value, especially for TIAs, drivers, and SerDes.

• Panther storage accelerator business is doubling annually, with new customer engagements and product evolution expected to drive further growth.

Market dynamics and growth outlook

• Optical data center business guidance has been raised for three consecutive quarters due to market growth and unexpected customer wins.

• Backlog visibility is strong, with customers placing orders and forecasts well into next year.

• Expectation to outpace semiconductor industry growth, targeting 2x the industry rate, with infrastructure business projected to grow 150-170% this year.

• New products like retimers and next-gen accelerators are expected to fuel growth through 2027 and 2028.

• Share gains are considered early, with significant runway as new products gain traction and customers seek alternative suppliers.