Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net income grew 10% for FY 2025, with underlying profit up 18% YoY, despite external headwinds such as smartphone sales reductions, tax changes, and high interest rates.

• Revenue grew 19% YoY for FY 2025, with underlying revenue up 21%, and consolidated revenue reaching KZT 4.05T.

• Strong consumer engagement with 77 monthly transactions per active consumer, and the brand remains the top consumer brand across categories in Kazakhstan.

• Hepsiburada in Türkiye showed accelerating order and consumer growth, with engaged consumers up 29% YoY in 4Q 2025.

• Dividend of KZT 850 per ADS proposed and recommended, reflecting strong cash generation and expected to be sustainable.

Financial highlights

• FY 2025 revenue up 19% YoY to KZT 3.1T–4.05T; net income up 10% YoY to KZT 1.07T–1.2T, with underlying revenue growth at 21%.

• Payments TPV grew 19% YoY to KZT 44.2T, with revenue up 12% and net income up 13%.

• Marketplace GMV up 19% YoY (excluding smartphones), e-Commerce GMV up 16% (27% ex-smartphones), purchases up 35%, and take rate reached 12.7%.

• Fintech TFV up 13% YoY, with loan portfolio growth of 31%, deposits up 18%, and net income up 9%.

• Adjusted EBITDA reached KZT 1.56T in FY 2025, up from KZT 1.3T in FY 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance includes both Kazakhstan and Türkiye, with marketplace GMV expected to grow around 20% YoY and Adjusted EBITDA growth targeted at ~5%.

• E-commerce GMV expected to be around 60% of total GMV in 2026.

• Dividend of KZT 850 per ADS proposed, expected to be sustainable for the year.

• No reduction in interest rates assumed in guidance; higher taxes and reserve requirements factored in.