Japan Post Insurance (7181) Q1 2027 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted profit for the quarter was ¥36.6 bn, up ¥1.5 bn year-over-year (+4.4%), with solid progress against the annual forecast of ¥155.0 bn (23.7% achieved).

• Ordinary income for Q1 FY2026 was ¥1,364.3 billion, down 4.9% year-over-year, with insurance premiums slightly lower and investment income up 44.1% year-over-year.

• Ordinary profit rose 2.8% year-over-year to ¥69.2 billion, while net income attributable to shareholders fell 1.5% to ¥34.1 billion, mainly due to a decline in policies in force.

• Net income remained flat at ¥36.3 bn, as higher dividends from alternative assets offset a decrease in policies in force.

• Comprehensive income surged 172.8% year-over-year to ¥532.1 billion, driven by significant unrealized gains on securities.

Financial highlights

• Core profit for the quarter was ¥98.4 bn, up from ¥92.0 bn year-over-year.

• Adjusted spread increased to ¥57.3 bn (+¥23.2 bn year-over-year), with an investment return on core profit of 2.22%.

• Embedded Value (EV) rose to ¥4,447.9 bn (+4.5% from March 2026), mainly due to unrealized gains in domestic stocks.

• Value of new business doubled to ¥26.9 bn (+101.1% year-over-year), with a new business margin of 7.5%.

• Insurance premiums and others totaled ¥572.5 billion (down 0.7% year-over-year); investment income reached ¥419.2 billion (up 44.1%).

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year adjusted profit forecast is ¥155.0 bn; net income forecast is ¥141.0 bn, down ¥27.7 bn from the prior year due to lower core profit and higher policy reserve burdens.

• Full-year FY2026 forecast: ordinary income ¥5,130.0 billion (down 8.8%), ordinary profit ¥250.0 billion (down 8.1%), net income ¥141.0 billion (down 16.5%), and net income per share ¥130.35.

• Sensitivity analysis shows a 50bp drop in domestic rates could reduce adjusted spread by ¥5.0 bn; a 10% yen appreciation could reduce foreign income by ¥20.0 bn.

• Dividend per share for FY27/3 is forecast at ¥50 (¥150 before stock split), with a medium-term payout ratio target of 55%.