Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores (GRUPOAVAL) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Year-to-date net income reached COP 1.4 trillion, up 88% year-over-year; Q3/3Q2025 net income was COP 521 billion (Ps 521.0 billion), the highest in two years, up 25.3% year-over-year and 5.3% sequentially, with EPS at Ps 21.9 per share.

• Strong net interest income, improved loan quality, loan growth, and cost containment drove results.

• Strategic focus on retail funding, digital payments (GOU Payments), operational synergies, and sustainability initiatives.

• Integration of trust and asset management businesses created Colombia’s largest fiduciary by AUM, with asset management AUM at COP $201 trillion and fee income growth of 13.8% YTD.

• Market share as of August 2025 was 25.1%, with gains in consumer and mortgage loans but a decline in commercial loans.

Financial highlights

• Net interest income grew 20.6% year-over-year and 11.6% quarter-on-quarter to COP 2.9 trillion; NIM improved to 4.35% (up 46 bps year-over-year and 35 bps quarter-on-quarter); NIM on loans was 4.42%.

• Gross loans grew 4.6% year-over-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter to Ps 203.4 trillion; deposits up 8.5% year-over-year and 4.4% quarter-on-quarter to Ps 212.6 trillion.

• Consumer loans posted strongest quarterly growth in 10 quarters at 1.5%; mortgages grew 18% year-over-year and 3.5% quarter-on-quarter.

• 90-day PDLs improved to 3.37%–3.4%, lowest since Q4 2022, with cost of risk at 1.9%.

• Return on equity for the quarter was 11.5%; return on assets 1%.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: loan growth ~4.5%, ROE ~10.5%, cost of risk ~1.9%, NIM ~4%; 2026 guidance: loan growth ~8%, ROE 12–12.5%, cost of risk ~2%, NIM ~4.3%.

• FY25 GDP growth guidance for Colombia is 2.7%; end-2025 inflation guided at 5.2%, policy rate at 9.25%.

• Expect continued improvement in NIM and asset quality, but anticipate higher cost of risk and cost to assets due to inflation and wage pressures.

• Political and fiscal uncertainty expected in early 2026 due to elections.