Expeditors (EXPD) Guidance summary

Opening remarks and agenda

• Session focused on the 2025 global outlook for supply chain professionals, emphasizing cost pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and new policy areas impacting global trade.

• Key geographies analyzed include the U.S., Europe, China, Mexico, Vietnam, and India, with a review of policy factors and trade tactics for the coming year.

Guidance on key objectives

• Outlook organized into macro, global trade, and global geopolitics to reduce uncertainty for supply chain planning.

• Emphasis on preparing for higher structural costs and persistent policy threats that could push costs higher.

Market trends and strategic opportunities

• Global growth expected to improve slightly in 2025, with growth engines shifting from the U.S. and China to Japan, emerging markets, and the EU.

• U.S. growth forecasted at 2.3%, China at 4.5% (below its 5% target), and EU at 1.2%, with Germany’s manufacturing sector remaining weak.

• Inflation and interest rates are normalizing, with U.S. inflation projected at 2.5% and Europe below 2% by late 2025.

• Emerging markets like Vietnam and Mexico face rising inflation due to FDI-driven demand and capacity constraints, potentially eroding cost competitiveness over time.

• Manufacturing costs in most sourcing markets are declining relative to the U.S., aided by a strong dollar and faster U.S. wage growth.

• Air cargo markets remain tight due to e-commerce demand, while ocean shipping faces excess capacity and uncertain carrier management.