ENEOS (5020) Q4 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY2025 operating profit rose by ¥94.9bn year-over-year, mainly from improved inventory valuation and positive time-lag effects due to higher oil prices amid Middle East tensions.

• FY2025 revenue decreased by 4.5% year-over-year to ¥11,765.5bn, while operating profit surged 339.8% to ¥466.6bn due to improved segment performance and one-time gains.

• FY2026 outlook projects operating profit of ¥610.0bn (+31% YoY), driven by gains from JX Advanced Metals share sale and higher oil/gas prices, despite a decline in Petroleum Products.

• Strategic M&A in Southeast Asia and Australia, including the acquisition of Chevron subsidiaries for $2.17bn, is expected to double overseas revenue by FY2030 and strengthen growth markets.

• Group restructuring aims to reduce consolidated subsidiaries by about 100, enhancing ROIC and governance.

Financial highlights

• FY2025 revenue: ¥11,765.5bn (-10% YoY); operating profit: ¥466.6bn (+26% YoY); profit attributable to owners: ¥258.7bn (+14% YoY); total comprehensive income: ¥420.2bn (+81.8% YoY).

• Excluding inventory valuation, FY2025 operating profit: ¥474.4bn (+11% YoY).

• FY2026 revenue forecast: ¥12,850.0bn (+9% YoY); operating profit: ¥610.0bn (+31% YoY); profit attributable to owners: ¥415.0bn (+60% YoY); basic profit per share: ¥154.28.

• Net D/E ratio improved to 0.42 as of March 2026; equity ratio at 37.1%.

• Equity in earnings of affiliates rose sharply to ¥81.0bn from ¥9.6bn.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2026 assumes limited Middle East impact until April–May 2026; crude oil (Dubai) price forecast at $85/bbl, exchange rate at ¥155/$.

• Sensitivity: every $5/bbl oil price increase adds ¥71.0bn to operating profit; every ¥5/$ weaker yen adds ¥35.0bn.

• Targeting refinery utilization rate (excl. periodic repairs) of 90% by FY2027.

• Operating profit excluding inventory valuation factors is forecast at ¥590.0bn (+24.4% YoY).