DaVita (DVA) Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2026 summary

Volume trends and growth outlook

• Volume guidance was raised due to increased census from competitor clinic closures and better-than-expected Q1 treatment volumes, with mortality improvement as a key driver.

• Most benefit from competitor clinic closures is expected by end of Q2, with some tailwind into next year.

• Industry volume growth historically driven by declining mortality, with expectations to return to 2%+ growth by 2029, though timing is uncertain.

• GLP-1 and SGLT2 inhibitors are expected to slow CKD progression but also reduce mortality, roughly offsetting each other.

• High single-digit percentage of patients are on GLP-1s, mainly those with diabetes.

Clinical innovation and technology

• Middle molecule clearance, via new machines or dialyzers, is anticipated to improve patient outcomes, but widespread adoption depends on regulatory and supply factors.

• AI investments are focused on infrastructure, with expected benefits in software development, revenue operations, and labor productivity.

• AI is expected to be a net cost through 2026 and much of 2027, with benefits accruing thereafter.

Financial performance and reimbursement

• OI growth guidance remains at 3%-7%, supported by international and value-based care segments, even with modest volume and pricing growth.

• RPT growth was strong in Q1 due to variability and is expected to moderate due to headwinds from lower commercial mix and declining binder ASP.

• Phosphate binders are expected to contribute similarly to last year, with future impact dependent on CMS decisions.

• Enhanced premium tax credits are phasing out, reducing commercial mix and impacting rates over a three-year period.