CF Industries (CF) Bank of America 2026 Global Agriculture and Materials Conference summary

2025 performance and operational highlights

• Achieved $2.9 billion EBITDA and $1.8 billion free cash flow in 2025, with 97% asset utilization and strong safety metrics.

• Nitrogen and ammonia markets remain structurally strong, with global ammonia prices at $600-$700/ton and production costs around $120-$130/ton due to low-cost gas.

• U.S. market benefits from integrated logistics, including pipelines and terminals in the Midwest, supporting stable demand from agriculture and industry.

• DEF (diesel exhaust fluid) is a growing market, driven by higher dosing rates in new equipment and regulatory changes, with continued investment planned.

• Positive outlook for nitrogen demand in 2026, supported by global dietary improvements, increased corn acreage, and ethanol production.

Market dynamics, trade flows, and regulatory environment

• Ammonia and nitrogen markets are influenced by global supply constraints, idled European capacity, and gas issues in Trinidad.

• Urea supply-demand remains tight, with limited new capacity and strong fundamentals.

• CBAM (EU carbon border adjustment mechanism) creates uncertainty for exports to Europe; low-carbon products are expected to be advantaged as regulations evolve.

• Japan has regulatory clarity with Contracts for Difference, supporting low-carbon ammonia projects and stable offtake agreements.

• CapEx inflation is managed through detailed engineering, modular construction, and fixed-price contracts, with confidence in delivering new plants on budget.

Logistics, infrastructure, and policy considerations

• Pipeline and barge systems are at capacity; moving ammonia from Gulf Coast to Midwest is limited by tank access and logistics costs.

• Rail and barge logistics are critical, with ongoing maintenance and regulatory support needed for efficient fertilizer delivery.

• Government policy focuses on farmer profitability and affordability, with integrated supply chains ensuring timely and cost-effective product delivery.

• Gas price volatility is managed through hedging strategies, with a focus on minimizing shocks and leveraging market opportunities.

• Trinidad operations face ongoing gas supply and pricing challenges, with future investment dependent on government commitments.