Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2026 revenue was DKK 1,058 million, down 21% year-over-year, with a 16% EBITDA margin; Travel Health grew 14% (adjusted), driven by rabies vaccine demand and VIMKUNYA/chikungunya launches.

• Public Preparedness revenue declined 53% year-over-year due to supply phasing and lower mpox impact, but guidance was raised after a new BARDA order.

• Net profit for Q1 2026 was DKK 17 million, down from DKK 219 million in Q1 2025.

• VIMKUNYA (chikungunya vaccine) approval expanded to Switzerland, with launches in 14 countries and further regulatory milestones expected.

• 2026 outlook upgraded: revenue guidance DKK 5,500–5,700 million, EBITDA margin ~28%.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2026 revenue: DKK 1,058 million (down 21% YoY); EBITDA: DKK 165 million (margin 16%).

• Gross profit margin at 45%, positively impacted by reversal of DKK 29 million Encepur provision.

• Net profit margin: 1.6% (Q1 2026) vs 16.3% (Q1 2025); basic EPS DKK 0.2.

• Cash and equivalents at DKK 2,292–2,300 million at quarter-end, with DKK 2,200 million post-share buyback.

• Negative operating cash flow of DKK 752–791 million, mainly due to milestone payments and share buybacks.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 revenue guidance raised to DKK 5,500–5,700 million; EBITDA margin expected at ~28%.

• Public Preparedness revenue guidance increased to DKK 2,300–2,500 million, with DKK 2,000 million already secured.

• Travel Health revenue includes DKK 250 million from VIMKUNYA sales; guidance unchanged barring major disruptions.

• R&D costs projected at DKK 750 million; CAPEX at DKK 250 million.

• No material partnership revenue in Travel Health for 2026 due to ended agreements.