Aviva (AV) Q3 2024 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered strong and profitable growth in Q3 2024, with double-digit increases in General Insurance, Wealth, and Retirement, and robust capital and liquidity positions maintained.

• General Insurance premiums rose 15% to £9.1bn across UK, Ireland, and Canada; Wealth net flows increased 21% to £7.7bn; Retirement sales surged 67% to £7.3bn year-over-year.

• Strategy focused on capital-light growth, disciplined capital allocation, and performance management is driving results.

• M&A integrations (AIG, Probitas, Optiom) progressing as planned, supporting growth momentum.

• Customer base expanded to 19.6m, with ambitions to exceed 21m by 2026, underpinned by scale and diversification.

Financial highlights

• General Insurance premiums up 15% to £9.1bn; UK & Ireland up 18%, Canada up 11%.

• Personal lines premiums up 26% in the UK, with Motor policy count up 13% year-to-date; commercial lines up 11% in the UK, Probitas contributed over £50m in Q3.

• Protection sales up 44% to £298m, driven by AIG UK acquisition; Health in-force premiums saw double-digit growth.

• Wealth net flows up 21% to £7.7bn; Workplace net flows £5.2bn in nine months; Retirement sales up 67% to £7.3bn, with BPA volumes at £6.1bn.

• Aviva Investors AUM grew 2% to £238bn, despite £1.7bn net outflows mainly from internal assets.

Outlook and guidance

• Confident in achieving 2026 targets: £2bn operating profit, £1.8bn Solvency II OFG, and >£5.8bn cash remittances (2024-2026).

• UK COR medium-term target remains sub-94%; current UK COR at 95.2%, discrete Q3 at 93.1%.

• Retirement margin guidance maintained at 3% for the full year, despite quarterly variations.

• Bulk annuity market expected to remain buoyant into 2025, with no major shift in de-risking trends.

• Dividend guidance for mid-single digit growth and regular, sustainable capital returns remains unchanged.