Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum 2026 summary

Market and Industry Context

• Rare earths are vital for electronics, EVs, wind turbines, robotics, and military applications, with sectors valued in the trillions of dollars.

• China maintains significant control over the rare earth supply chain, recently tightening export constraints, especially toward Japan, while global supply remains constrained due to geopolitical tensions.

• Global efforts, led by the U.S. and G7, are underway to diversify supply chains and establish independent price indices, with non-Chinese indexes gaining traction.

• Demand for NdPr oxide is projected to double by 2035, driven by electric vehicles, wind energy, and robotics, with a 7% CAGR from 2024 to 2035.

• National security and defence sectors are increasingly prioritizing rare earth supply chain resilience.

Project Milestones, Funding, and Development Status

• Achieved full project funding, securing over US $1 billion in debt and up to US $900 million in equity, with total development cost forecast at US $1.6 billion.

• Final investment decision made, with construction targeted to commence in late 2026 and bulk earthworks planned for the December 2026 quarter.

• All necessary permits are in place, with multi-jurisdiction government and export credit agency support.

• Additional $462 million in completion support is available, reducing risk for investors and lenders.

• Major contracts for construction, power, logistics, and plant installation are scheduled for the next 6 months.

Asset and Operational Advantages

• The ore body supports a 38-year mine life from the first 200 meters and is open at depth, with nearly 100 km of drilling completed.

• Ore-to-oxide processing on a single site ensures all output is radiation-free and provides cost advantages.

• Phase I will produce 4,400 tons of NdPr, supporting 4.5 million EVs, with plans to increase to 10,000 tons per annum in Phase II.

• The phosphate-hosted ore body allows for byproduct phosphoric acid sales and eliminates the need to neutralize waste streams.

• The project aims to become a third-party processing hub, reducing capital requirements for other Australian rare earth projects.