AGL Energy (AGL) H2 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Underlying EBITDA rose 2% to $2,100 million, while underlying NPAT declined 2% to $631 million, reflecting strong operational performance and disciplined cost control in a softer market.

• Statutory profit after tax was $756 million, up $644 million from FY25, supported by asset sales and strong business performance.

• Customer services grew by 92,000 to 4.6 million, with satisfaction reaching 84.1 and churn advantage improving by 4.9 percentage points, driven by organic growth and the Ampol Energy acquisition.

• Strategic execution included disciplined acquisitions, divestment of the Telco business, a partnership with Aussie Broadband, and the sale of a 19.9% stake in Tilt Renewables for $750 million.

• Significant progress in fleet flexibility and renewable capacity, including operationalization of the Liddell Battery and construction of the Tomago Battery.

Financial highlights

• Underlying EBITDA: $2,100 million (up 2% YoY); underlying NPAT: $631 million (down 2% YoY); statutory NPAT: $756 million.

• Operating free cash flow: $850 million (up $319 million YoY); net debt: $2.86 billion (flat YoY); return on capital invested: 10.7%.

• Final ordinary dividend of 26 cents per share, fully franked; total FY26 dividend 50 cents per share (53.3% payout ratio), up 2 cents from FY25.

• Customer Markets EBITDA: $392 million (up 32% YoY); Integrated Energy EBITDA: $2,032 million (down 2% YoY).

• Cash conversion rate at 97%, with operating costs held flat despite inflation.

Outlook and guidance

• FY27 underlying EBITDA guidance: $1,900–$2,200 million; underlying NPAT: $470–$670 million.

• Dividend payout ratio targeted at 55–60% of underlying NPAT, fully franked.

• Guidance reflects stable consumer margins, full-year Liddell Battery earnings, lower operating costs, higher gas costs, and increased depreciation.

• Market expected to remain volatile as coal exits and renewables increase; company largely hedged for FY27.

• Guidance subject to regulatory, trading, and plant availability risks.